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Mesoscale Discussion 1224
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1224
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

   Areas affected...Near the Idaho...Montana...and Wyoming Border

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031948Z - 032145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible into the
   evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...An approaching shortwave trough has triggered several
   storms in the higher elevations surrounding Yellowstone. Weak
   buoyancy has limited the severity of these storms thus far, but
   MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg should be sufficient for a few
   stronger storms given effective shear is between 40 and 50 knots per
   latest RAP mesoanalysis. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse
   rates and at least some storm organization due to the shear profile,
   isolated hail and damaging winds are both possible with these storms
   and any additional storms which develop.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/03/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44921272 45441211 45881113 46090997 46160839 45870750
               45390699 44940689 43800800 43530934 43511051 43891164
               44251253 44921272 

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