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Mesoscale Discussion 1225
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

   Areas affected...Extreme southeastern NY/western MA to southeastern
   NH and extreme southern ME

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032015Z - 032115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional damaging gusts will remain possible with
   supercells along a front/differential heating boundary, and with the
   merging clusters spreading northeastward from southeastern NY.  The
   severe threat duration should be the next 2-3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms with supercell structures is
   spreading east-northeastward across southeastern NH, close to a
   differential heating zone/weak stalled front.  The storms are along
   the north edge of a corridor of moderate buoyancy, and the southern
   fringe of the stronger midlevel flow.  There will be a narrow window
   of opportunity for the storms to persist along the front, until
   weakening late this afternoon/evening as the storms cross into the
   remnant sea breeze air mass just inland from the ME coast.  Farther
   southwest, a loosely organized cluster of storms is spreading
   northeastward from extreme southeastern NY toward northwestern CT
   and western MA.  Additional storm mergers are expected as the
   outflow with the cluster intersects the composite
   front/outflow/differential heating zone.  The strongest storms have
   produced some tree damage and a measured 52 mph gust at the Beacon
   mesonet site in southeastern NY.  The severe threat should be
   confined to the narrow zone along the front for the next 2-3 hours,
   though the need for a watch is not clear.

   ..Thompson.. 08/03/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   43447148 43607108 43787067 43667043 43337094 42777128
               42197188 41817276 41617342 41737377 41907398 42247368
               42877255 43447148 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2018
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