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Mesoscale Discussion 1226
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota and Southwestern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032105Z - 032200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...There is a threat of isolated severe weather across
   eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota this afternoon into
   this evening. Limited coverage of strong to severe storms will
   likely preclude the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...The significant capping inversion observed on the
   Aberdeen, SD 12Z RAOB has suppressed much of the convection today
   south of elevated activity across the South Dakota/North Dakota
   border this afternoon. The lack of much boundary layer cumulus south
   of this activity and significant mid-level cloud cover would suggest
   that the cap may struggle to break. A few storms are still possible,
   and considering MLCAPE values are near 2000 J/kg and effective shear
   is around 30 knots, any stronger surface based storms which are able
   to develop have the potential to become severe with large hail and
   damaging winds possible. However, given the uncertainties about
   storm development and the relatively isolated area of severe risk if
   any storms do develop, a watch is unlikely.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/03/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44719876 45269820 45529776 45689735 45739687 45889615
               45879539 45819506 45649480 45409441 44949420 44569428
               44379489 44109584 43759659 43229704 42829765 42749819
               42619875 42669925 42919939 43919929 44719876 

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