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Mesoscale Discussion 1227
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1227
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1019 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

   Areas affected...northwest to central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240319Z - 240515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible the next
   couple of hours as storms track southeast across northwest OK toward
   central OK. A watch is not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms that was tracking east/southeast
   across the OK/TX Panhandles earlier this evening has become better
   organized across northwest OK and the OK Mesonet station at Arnett
   recorded a 61 mph gust. Other OK Mesonet sites across northwest OK
   have measured 40-50 mph gusts. This increase in organization is
   probably due to increasing instability and boundary layer moisture
   with eastward extent. There is also likely some influence/increased
   ascent associated with a shortwave impulse ejecting with the
   midlevel trough across the central Plains, resulting in height falls
   and some cooling aloft. 

   Convection may maintain organization as storms track to the
   southeast toward central and north-central OK at around 35-45 kt,
   and occasional strong/isolated severe wind gusts are possible the
   next couple of hours. While latest surface dewpoint trends and
   modest gains in MLCAPE suggest some airmass recovery of the residual
   cold pool from earlier day convection, low level lapse rates will
   continue to weaken as the boundary layer cools. In the absence of a
   stronger low level jet and as forcing for ascent decreases with
   time/southward extent, expect a gradual weakening trend of storms as
   they move toward north-central and central OK later this evening. As
   such, a watch is not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 06/24/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36829936 36989901 36979837 36339757 36069741 35639733
               35349764 35209821 35139893 35259948 35329959 35499996
               35829985 36379964 36829936 

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