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Mesoscale Discussion 1227
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1227
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

   Areas affected...Central and Southern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032231Z - 040100Z

   CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED.

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible for the next few hours,
   with a decreasing severe threat as the boundary layer stabilizes. A
   WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Convection, initiated by a small 500 mb mid-level
   shortwave trough/vortmax along the northeast South Dakota/southeast
   North Dakota border, has recently grown upscale into an MCS along
   the South Dakota/Minnesota border. The ambient environment is
   characterized by 3000-4000 J/Kg MUCAPE (fueled mainly by steep low
   and mid-level lapse rates and rich sfc-925 mb moisture), and 40+
   knots of effective bulk shear. 700 mb warm air advection is also
   prevalent downstream of the MCS, suggesting that forcing for ascent
   should support the continuance of the MCS for at least a few more
   hours. Even so, relatively drier air in the 850-700 mb layer
   downstream of the MCS suggests that convection should undergo a
   weakening trend as the boundary layer decouples, likely cutting off
   the MCS from access to better moisture. 

   As such, any severe threat that may occur from the present moment is
   expected to be relatively short in duration and isolated, with
   damaging wind gusts the primary threat. A WW issuance is currently
   not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/03/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45719607 45579620 44939681 44689636 44589603 44599522
               44589431 44609354 44839311 45289312 45679325 45939417
               45919511 45719607 

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