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Mesoscale Discussion 1228
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1228
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 PM CDT Fri Aug 03 2018

   Areas affected...Far east Colorado...northwest Kansas...far
   southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032330Z - 040200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms may
   continue to produce isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail
   until after sunset. A WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse severe convection has initiated along a cold
   front along the Colorado/Kansas border, in an ambient environment
   characterized by around 1000-2000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 30 knots of
   effective bulk shear. The ambient buoyancy is mainly driven by
   surface heating and associated steep low-level lapse rates, which
   are expected to wane at the onset of nocturnal cooling/boundary
   layer stabilization, when storms are expected to begin weakening.

   In the meantime, steep low-level lapse rates, combined with marginal
   shear profiles, may support severe hail growth in some of the more
   organized updrafts. The relatively drier, heated airmass in a
   dry-adiabatic sfc-700 mb layer will also support strong evaporative
   cooling with the more intense thunderstorm downdrafts, where
   additional instances of severe wind gusts may occur. 

   Given the marginal and isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
   issuance is not expected at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/03/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38070307 39250240 40240239 40840180 41330130 41160072
               40680053 39980067 39240093 38680158 38320203 38120234

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