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Mesoscale Discussion 1229
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1229
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 AM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

   Areas affected...eastern MA...eastern CT...RI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041353Z - 041430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for a supercell tornado may maximize
   during the next 30-60 minutes for portions of east-central MA.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
   over NY.  A very moist boundary layer (16.2 g/kg lowest 100mb mean
   mixing ratio) sampled by the 12Z OKX raob exhibited moderate
   buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE).  KBOX has recently shown a slight
   strengthening in the 6km flow (35-40 kt southwesterlies) which is
   supporting an ongoing supercell near the CT/RI/MA border.  The main
   limitation for a more heightened tornado risk appears to be the
   modest low-level shear per KBOX/KOKX VAD data and the CHH/OKX raob. 
   Nonetheless, the moist low levels coupled with a
   supercell-supportive wind profile may yield a continued risk for a
   mesocyclone capable of a weak/brief supercell tornado.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/04/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42067214 42247156 42167125 41727123 41307183 41277217

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