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Mesoscale Discussion 1252
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1252
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0638 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southern Iowa...northern
   Missouri...far northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062338Z - 070145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms along a cold front will be capable of mainly severe
   wind gusts with perhaps an isolated instance of severe hail. A WW is
   not anticipated though trends in storm organization are being
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated along a cold front from Nemaha
   County, KS northeastward to areas along the Iowa/Missouri border in
   response to a mid-level wave approaching from the northwest. Local
   subsidence in the wake of a weak disturbance now located in western
   Illinois appears to be limiting storm coverage currently; however,
   increasing influence of the upstream trough should increase coverage
   with time. Effective bulk shear values of 30-45 kts -- increasing
   modestly with time -- will support storm organization. Modest
   mid-level lapse rates should limit the hail threat. Strong surface
   heating has contributed to MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg and, with
   low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, a threat for severe wind gusts
   will be greatest threat. Concerns regarding the overall coverage of
   the threat make a WW unlikely. However, should a more organized
   linear system evolve, a WW would be possible.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 08/06/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40689647 41209523 41269386 41009200 40619146 40179219
               39999350 39849463 39709564 39729637 40219669 40689647 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2018
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