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Mesoscale Discussion 1252
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1252
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0124 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

   Areas affected...southeastern Indiana across much of Ohio...northern
   Kentucky...and into western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221824Z - 222000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected along a cold
   front this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A cumulus field has developed ahead of a cold front
   across the Ohio Valley. SPC mesoanalysis suggests ML CINH has eroded
   and towering cumulus have started to develop. The airmass in this
   region is very unstable with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg and mid-level
   lapse rates around 7 C/km per SPC mesoanalysis. Convergence is quite
   weak along the front which may limit overall storm coverage and
   shear is very weak in the area (less than 20 knots) which should
   limit storm organization. However, the instability may still support
   strong to severe storms capable of damaging downbursts. Therefore, a
   severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 06/22/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38558518 38428644 38628722 39118705 39588624 40438326
               41478087 41887985 41927938 41887897 41817867 41477870
               40817890 39428020 38798206 38658386 38558518 

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