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Mesoscale Discussion 1254
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1254
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the mid Mississippi valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070604Z - 070700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts remain possible early this morning.
   However, the threat is forecast to diminish over the next couple of
   hours, and watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A small, but robust convective cluster has produced
   occasional wind damage over eastern Missouri this morning as it
   moves east around 40-45 kt. Enhanced convergence and focused
   propagation along outflow to its east are likely maintaining the
   severe threat more than would be expected otherwise, considering the
   presence of non-negligible surface-based inhibition. Still, the ILX
   00Z sounding sampled relatively steep lapse rates, such that some
   residual mixed layer (atop a thin, nocturnally cooled surface layer)
   is aiding updraft accelerations for parcels forced to their LFC by
   the cold pool. With that said, this cluster and a small linear
   segment to the north in Illinois should become increasingly
   displaced behind surging outflows this morning, with the the
   damaging-wind threat diminishing accordingly.

   ..Picca/Edwards.. 08/07/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39209186 40898978 40718835 40098805 38888876 38588965
               38789147 38999187 39209186 

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