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Mesoscale Discussion 1264
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1264
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1051 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

   Areas affected...portions of the FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121551Z - 121745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic strong, locally damaging wind gusts and hail will
   be possible with more intense thunderstorms this afternoon across
   parts of the Florida Peninsula.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing across southern FL, moving
   toward the central peninsula, in the vicinity of an outflow boundary
   from overnight/early morning convection. Additional convection is
   also beginning to develop over eastern portions of the peninsula in
   developing sea breeze and deep southeasterly flow. Moderate to
   strong instability is already in place with dewpoints well into the
   70s F amid strong surface heating and modest midlevel cooling.
   Little to no inhibition remains over the region, and convection
   should continue to increase in coverage over the next couple of
   hours as storms track toward the northwest. 

   Deep layer flow will generally remain weak over the region and this
   will inhibit storm organization somewhat. Nevertheless, steep
   midlevel lapse rates and strong instability should compensate and
   allow for at least briefly intense cells within thunderstorm
   clusters. High PW values also will help contribute to damaging wind
   potential via wet microburst processes. Some hail also could briefly
   accompany any more intense cells, but longevity of intense updrafts
   should remain limited given weak vertical shear. Trends will be
   monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Leitman/Dial.. 07/12/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29628308 29828274 29798232 29608200 29198155 28618109
               28288095 27158086 26668081 26608082 26538103 26448175
               26648220 26998255 27768291 28538290 29198318 29558314

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