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Mesoscale Discussion 1271
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1271
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0711 PM CDT Thu Aug 09 2018

   Areas affected...Central and Western Arizona...Far Southeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 100011Z - 100245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage threat will continue as a line of storms
   move south-southwestward across western and central Arizona this
   evening. A weather watch remains possible across the region.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms
   between 40 and 100 statue miles to the west of Flagstaff. This line
   is located in a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE values are
   estimated in the 1200 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km lapse
   rates are estimated to be in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range across much
   of western and central Arizona. This along with 0-6 km shear of
   20-25 kt should be enough for a wind damage threat with the stronger
   multicells. This threat should eventually affect areas near Phoenix
   extending westward to near the California-Arizona state line later
   this evening. If the outflows congeal into a larger-scale cold pool
   with more widespread wind damage as a result, then a watch could
   need to be issued.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/10/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34931132 35491269 35711319 35501366 34781426 34011461
               33321456 32831377 32721293 33241208 34931132 

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