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Mesoscale Discussion 1272
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

   Areas affected...eastern Illinois into western Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102148Z - 102345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may be capable of marginally severe wind
   gusts through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have gradually developed along a weak cold front
   across east-central Illinois, and over northern Indiana where a
   surface low was noted at 21Z. Farther east, an outflow boundary was
   analyzed from northeastern Indiana into central Ohio. Ahead of these
   boundaries, moderate instability has developed with MLCAPE of
   2500-3000 J/kg. As storms have only recently developed over Illinois
   and Indiana coincident with peak heating, they are expected to
   persist or increase a bit in coverage through early evening. Weak
   wind profiles should generally preclude much organization, but small
   clusters of storms may yield strong outflow winds.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/10/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39488873 39748842 40198767 40438747 40968733 41118676
               41028513 40878468 40578414 40198383 39848370 39418354
               39038393 39158444 39178478 39268554 39238630 39098688
               38768740 38698774 38768831 38918894 39058911 39488873 

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