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Mesoscale Discussion 1273
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Plains and Mid
   Missouri/Mississippi Valleys

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102156Z - 110030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to develop along/near a surface
   boundary and an upper-level trough axis. Strong wind gusts are
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered pulse thunderstorms continue to develop
   across this region in the vicinity of a surface boundary and
   upper-level trough axis. Storms are forming in a moderately buoyant
   environment (1500-2500 J/kg), but without strong shear and flow
   aloft, a pulse storm mode should continue as outflow from
   dissipating storms will help generate new storms. Strong daytime
   heating has destabilized lower-levels and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg
   indicate the potential for strong wind gusts. Some severe wind
   reports have already occurred in Oklahoma and the wind threat should
   continue until around sunset when activity is likely to decrease.
   The convection should remain unorganized and the overall severe wind
   threat is limited/isolated, therefore, a watch is unlikely.

   ..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/10/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36450011 35540060 34960030 34479958 34569880 34909741
               34949541 35459465 35989411 36589312 36989247 37299193
               37699116 38199035 38669002 39039027 39159154 38859334
               37989600 37369830 37279852 36999968 36450011 

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Page last modified: August 11, 2018
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