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Mesoscale Discussion 1279
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1279
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

   Areas affected...Central/Western Arizona

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336...

   Valid 130100Z - 130300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A broken line of storms continues moving southwest in
   central Arizona in/near WW 336. Upscale organization is possible
   with severe wind/hail still likely.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms stretching from north of
   Phoenix to northeast of Tucson is moving southwest with a history of
   severe warnings. Storms are in/moving into MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
   with marginal effective bulk shear (25-30 knots) indicating the
   potential for hail while steep low-level lapse rates, surface
   dewpoint depressions of 40+ F, and DCAPE of 1200+ J/kg along/ahead
   of the storms indicate the potential for severe wind. If a cold pool
   can establish behind these storms, the severe threat will
   increase/continue and mitigate the decreasing instability as
   insolation wanes. Strong/severe storms may also develop along/south
   of Watch #336 and will continued to be monitored.

   ..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/13/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   34351403 34531304 34651216 34731144 34511110 34291093
               33881086 33151088 32821062 32561064 32481146 32511221
               32501308 32481331 32351398 32941398 34351403 

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Page last modified: August 13, 2018
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