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Mesoscale Discussion 1304
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MD 1304 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1304
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

   Areas affected...far northeast WY...western half of SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291928Z - 292200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify
   through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. 
   Severe gusts ranging from 60-75 mph are possible with the stronger

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing high-based
   convection over northeast WY with a mid-level accas field spreading
   east into western SD near the Black Hills.  Clear skies east of
   Rapid City have resulted in strong heating with surface temperatures
   around 100 deg F and dewpoints around 50.  Forecast soundings
   indicate a nearly dry adiabatic lapse rate from the surface to 500
   mb based on current surface observations.  Model guidance,
   particularly the HRRR, shows storms gradually developing as
   convection moves east from near the WY/SD border (surface dewpoints
   in the 30s to lower 40s) into slightly richer moisture farther east
   near Phillips (dewpoints around 50 deg F).  A semi-organized cluster
   of initially skeletal but increasingly robust storms will probably
   evolve, with widely scattered to scattered severe gusts ranging from
   60-75 mph as this activity moves into central SD towards early

   ..Smith/Hart.. 06/29/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44810479 45560099 45160051 44440048 43790067 43430151
               43460456 44140498 44810479 

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