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Mesoscale Discussion 1314
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MD 1314 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New
   Jersey into the lower Hudson Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340...

   Valid 172331Z - 180100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340

   SUMMARY...Storms may continue to produce frequent cloud to ground
   lightning, with increasing potential for damaging wind gusts
   possible into the 8-10 PM EDT time frame.

   DISCUSSION...A small but sustained cluster of vigorous thunderstorms
   now northwest of Philadelphia PA seems to provide the most
   substantive continuing severe weather potential through 00-02Z. 
   Within surface troughing across the northern Mid Atlantic region,
   the boundary layer air mass ahead of it remains warm, very moist and
   characterized by moderately large CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. 
   Inflow of this air provides potential for further intensification of
   this convection, along with the possible evolution of a
   strengthening surface cold pool. Perhaps aided by modest vertical
   shear associated with a belt of 20-30 kt southwesterly lower/mid
   tropospheric flow, this could still be accompanied by an increasing
   risk for damaging wind gusts north of Philadelphia through northern
   New Jersey and portions of the lower Hudson Valley this evening.

   Otherwise, thunderstorm activity elsewhere across severe
   thunderstorm watch 340 and surrounding areas seems likely to
   gradually diminish with decreasing severe weather potential.

   ..Kerr.. 08/17/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40957505 41337454 41167374 40187411 39797522 40077580
               40437539 40957505 

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