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Mesoscale Discussion 1316
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1316
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of east-central/southeastern
   CO...northeastern NM...and the western TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181825Z - 182030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase this
   afternoon, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main
   concerns. Watch issuance is probable for some portion of this

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough
   moving over central CO early this afternoon. Towering cumulus and a
   few thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain, have been
   observed on visible satellite and radar imagery in response to the
   large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough. Strong
   surface heating is underway across much of the Plains of
   southeastern CO and northeastern NM. Steep mid-level lapse rates
   were also present on the 12Z sounding from DNR. The combination of
   diurnal heating, a relatively moist low-level airmass, and steep low
   to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to around 1500-2500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE by late afternoon. Initially isolated to scattered convection
   will likely grow upscale along a surface lee through through the
   afternoon as it develops eastward off the higher terrain. Although
   mid-level winds will remain somewhat modest, around 25-30 kt, there
   will be sufficient veering with height to support 25-35 kt of
   effective bulk shear. Isolated large hail may be the primary concern
   with initial mainly discrete development, with a gradual transition
   to more of a damaging wind threat with eastward extent as storms
   develop into a line.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 08/18/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36620218 36140270 35780344 35780439 36110506 37000494
               37910492 38720483 39130461 39140341 39060253 38750207

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