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Mesoscale Discussion 1320
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1320
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

   Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Ohio into northern
   Pennsylvania and southeast New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020035Z - 020200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts or instances of large hail may
   accompany the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to
   remain isolated and brief.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively robust uptick in convective coverage and
   intensity has been noted across parts of the central Appalachians
   into the Hudson Valley over the past hour or so, with regional
   WSR-88D and MRMS radar data showing the development of both linear
   clusters and shorter lived transient supercells. These storms are
   developing in a corridor of higher destabilization (given the
   overall lack of earlier convection). The 00z PIT observed sounding
   and mesoanalysis show near 70 F surface dewpoints overspread by 7+
   C/km low-level lapse rates, contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. In
   both data sources, modest veering and strengthening of the vertical
   wind profile are resulting in widespread 40+ kts of effective bulk
   shear. As such, any storms that can intensify and become sustained
   may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and large hail for the
   next couple of hours, before buoyancy appreciably diminishes with
   the onset of nocturnal cooling.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/02/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40968141 41847965 42697592 42787511 42397451 41827455
               41317507 40917572 40597693 40467794 40417916 40438075
               40968141 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2022
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