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Mesoscale Discussion 1321
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0801 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

   Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Western South
   Dakota...Northwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

   Valid 020101Z - 020300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat will likely
   continue for a few more hours across parts of western South Dakota
   and northwest Nebraska. An isolated severe threat may also persist
   across far southeast Montana, where large hail will also be
   possible. The severe threat should become more isolated as the 04Z
   expiration of WW 418 approaches. Additional watch issuance is not
   expected downstream.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Rapid City, South
   Dakota shows a line of strong thunderstorms from southwest South
   Dakota into far northwest Nebraska. This line will continue to move
   southeastward along a corridor of instability, where the RAP is
   analyzing MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. Additional storms
   are located further northwest near the instability axis, across far
   northwest South Dakota and far southeast Montana. Moderate
   deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, evident on RAP
   forecast soundings, will continue to support a severe threat for two
   to three more hours. Isolated supercells with large hail will be
   possible. Wind damage may also accompany the stronger downdrafts. As
   instability begins to decrease due to cooling boundary layer
   temperatures, a gradual downtrend in the severe threat is expected
   later this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 07/02/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41060219 41190288 41780364 42440368 43280373 44600424
               45610515 46000535 46250499 46010419 45760361 45510315
               45060258 44350173 43670109 42740065 41400067 41060219 

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