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Mesoscale Discussion 1322
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MD 1322 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast PA into parts of southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 021645Z - 021845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase this afternoon,
   accompanied by a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated
   hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing from northeast PA
   into southern NY early this afternoon, with some weak midlevel
   rotation noted with a small cell near Binghamton. Buoyancy is
   currently modest across the region, but continued diurnal
   heating/destabilization will support MLCAPE of greater than 1000
   J/kg later this afternoon from northeast PA into parts of southern
   New England. Moderate westerly flow aloft will support effective
   shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for organized convection. As storm
   coverage increases with time this afternoon, a couple of organized
   clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with an attendant
   risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance is probable later this afternoon once a
   greater coverage of organized storms appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 07/02/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42057573 42797350 42937239 42907190 42547184 41727256
               41247392 41167488 41197544 41317597 41467612 41767612

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