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Mesoscale Discussion 1337
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031724Z - 031900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some threat for localized hail and damaging wind gusts may
   persist through early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated strong thunderstorm has recently evolved
   along the southern periphery of an elevated storm cluster that
   developed overnight and moved eastward across SD. It appears that
   this new cell is being sustained along the eastern edge of a
   buoyancy gradient, in conjunction with steepening midlevel lapse
   rates and favorable low-level moisture. Recent intensification
   trends and weakening MLCINH suggest that this storm may be becoming
   surface based. Modest midlevel westerly flow is supporting effective
   shear for a surface-based storm of 30-40 kt, so evolution into a
   supercell appears possible in the short term, with an attendant risk
   of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. 

   The longevity of this cell remains somewhat uncertain, with rather
   weak large-scale ascent and most short-term guidance struggling to
   maintain convection in this area, but the environment is not
   prohibitive for sustained convection, and this storm may persist
   into the mid afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the threat and
   uncertainty regarding storm longevity, watch issuance is considered
   unlikely in the short term.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 07/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44079912 44259806 44319759 44249707 43629689 43269705
               43189764 43309817 43729912 44079912 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2022
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