Mesoscale Discussion 1338
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

   Areas affected...Southwest Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 031809Z - 031915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across southwest
   Montana this afternoon, with a risk of a few supercells capable of
   large hail and damaging winds.  A severe thunderstorm watch is
   likely.

   DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery show a small cluster of
   thunderstorms over southern Lemhi county ID, along with increasing
   towering cumulus clouds over the Sawtooth mountains of central ID. 
   This activity is ahead of a shortwave trough over eastern WA/OR that
   will track northeastward across the region this afternoon and
   evening.  Mid and high clouds are slowly clearing to the east of
   this activity, which should allow strong heating and destabilization
   to occur.  Rather cool temperatures aloft (-13 to -14C at 500mb)
   coupled with dewpoints in the low-mid 50s will aid in MLCAPE values
   over 1000 J/kg in the mountains of southwest MT.  Sufficient
   effective shear values suggest a risk of a rotating storms capable
   of large hail and damaging wind gusts.  Trends are being monitored
   for watch issuance in parts of the discussion area.

   ..Hart/Grams.. 07/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   44601356 45701425 46221340 46791181 47011035 46110973
               45171061 44241237 44601356