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Mesoscale Discussion 1339
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1339
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

   Areas affected...Western and Central North Carolina...Upstate South
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031820Z - 032045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the mountains of western NC
   will spread east-southeastward into the Piedmont region.  The
   stronger cells will produce brief gusty/damaging winds.  A watch is
   not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery show increasing
   thunderstorms  over the mountains of western NC.  This activity is
   expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon as strong
   heating and dewpoints in around 70F yield MLCAPE values of ~2000
   J/kg.  Low-level lapse rates will be rather steep today as
   temperatures ahead of the convection rise into the 90s.  However,
   mid-level lapse rates are weak, and winds through the cloud-bearing
   layer are generally below 20 knots.  Isolated cells across the
   Piedmont region will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds
   this afternoon, but the risk of a more organized severe threat
   appears limited.

   ..Hart/Grams.. 07/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35188265 36228110 36527980 36087945 35587996 35018092
               34678216 34618277 34828308 35188265 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2022
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