|Mesoscale Discussion 1342|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Areas affected...Four Corners into southern Nevada
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242001Z - 242200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms across northern New
Mexico and southern Utah have recently shown signs of
intensification. These storms and additional development may pose a
risk for damaging winds or small hail this afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION...Within a monsoonal flow regime beneath a weak upper
low, strong diurnal heating and weak ascent have allowed several
clusters of thunderstorms to become established over portions of the
Southwest in the last couple of hours. As heating and orographic
ascent continue, additional thunderstorm development appears likely.
Within the high PWAT airmass, SPC mesoanalysis indicates 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE has developed. While thermodynamics are favorable for
robust updrafts, a blocking ridge of high pressure in the mid levels
should limit flow aloft and resulting vertical shear to below 25
kts. A multicellular storm mode is expected with the stronger storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and small hail. A locally greater
risk of damaging wind gusts may develop if storm outflows are able
to evolve into small clusters as suggested by some hi-res guidance.
However, given the low predictability and expected limited severe
threat, a watch is unlikely at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36521526 37381456 37601320 37611229 37571105 37230966
37010892 36630819 36250784 35800784 35230798 34800888
34740966 34721061 34851193 35021295 35191412 36521526
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