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Mesoscale Discussion 1342
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1342
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

   Areas affected...Four Corners into southern Nevada

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242001Z - 242200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms across northern New
   Mexico and southern Utah have recently shown signs of
   intensification. These storms and additional development may pose a
   risk for damaging winds or small hail this afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Within a monsoonal flow regime beneath a weak upper
   low, strong diurnal heating and weak ascent have allowed several
   clusters of thunderstorms to become established over portions of the
   Southwest in the last couple of hours. As heating and orographic
   ascent continue, additional thunderstorm development appears likely.
   Within the high PWAT airmass, SPC mesoanalysis indicates 500-1000
   J/kg of MLCAPE has developed. While thermodynamics are favorable for
   robust updrafts, a blocking ridge of high pressure in the mid levels
   should limit flow aloft and resulting vertical shear to below 25
   kts. A multicellular storm mode is expected with the stronger storms
   capable of damaging wind gusts and small hail. A locally greater
   risk of damaging wind gusts may develop if storm outflows are able
   to evolve into small clusters as suggested by some hi-res guidance.
   However, given the low predictability and expected limited severe
   threat, a watch is unlikely at this time.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/24/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36521526 37381456 37601320 37611229 37571105 37230966
               37010892 36630819 36250784 35800784 35230798 34800888
               34740966 34721061 34851193 35021295 35191412 36521526 

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