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Mesoscale Discussion 1359
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1359
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0613 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southern OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...

   Valid 302313Z - 310045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift southeast across ww405.

   DISCUSSION...Northwesterly flow is deepening across the
   central/southern High Plains this evening along back side of digging
   short-wave trough. Convection has recently organized along a
   pre-frontal low-level confluence zone that stretches from northwest
   TX into south-central OK. Thunderstorms have slowly organized along
   this corridor and an adequate precip shield has likely evolved such
   that this activity should continue to propagate southeast at roughly
   20kt. While low-level inflow is fairly weak, low-midlevel lapse
   rates are seasonally steep for robust updrafts -- especially given
   the strengthening mid-high level wind fields. Isolated severe wind
   gusts and marginally severe hail threat continue, especially near
   the Red River.

   ..Darrow.. 07/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34979714 34949559 34489538 34169649 32649889 32550041
               33260077 33589977 34119862 34979714 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2020
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