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Mesoscale Discussion 1373
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1373
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020

   Areas affected...northern Virginia...eastern West Virginia...much of
   Maryland...and the District of Columbia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012000Z - 012200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection over eastern West Virginia will gradually
   spread eastward, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
   an isolated tornado.  A WW may eventually be needed pending
   convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed across portions of
   eastern West Virginia over the past hour or so, with one cell
   showing signs of broad/weak rotation aloft.  The airmass supporting
   these storms has become moderately unstable, with 70s F dewpoints
   and 80s F surface temperatures resulting in 2000-2500 J/kg along and
   south of a warm front located from PIT to WAL.  The cells are also
   in a weakly forced synoptic environment, with a mid-level trough
   located well west of the region. Nevertheless, weak inhibition and
   buoyancy in tandem with weak surface confluence has fostered initial
   development in eastern West Virginia.  This regime should continue
   through the evening, with 30-40 knots of deep shear fostering
   organization.  Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with
   this activity, although a tornado cannot be ruled out given favored
   cellular storm mode and potential for updraft interactions with the
   aforementioned warm front.  Convective trends are being monitored,
   and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed especially if a
   greater concentration of convection can be achieved through
   nightfall.

   ..Cook/Bunting.. 08/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39967756 39947810 39647873 39317904 38927938 38467956
               38107918 38037820 38257719 38487656 38897629 39487637
               39807711 39967756 

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Page last modified: August 01, 2020
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