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Mesoscale Discussion 1374
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1374
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0313 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020

   Areas affected...Much Of New Mexico and far West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012013Z - 012215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of large hail and damaging
   winds possible this afternoon, however watch issuance is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Diabatic heating has resulted in surface temperatures
   warming into the mid 80s F amid enough residual moisture (dew point
   temperatures in the mid to upper 40s) and weak inhibition, to
   promote convective development in terrain-favored locations,
   particularly along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and
   Sacramento/Guadalupe Ranges. Surface-based CAPE has correspondingly
   increased, with a few pockets near 1500 J/kg. Continued daytime
   heating should progressively allow SBCAPE values to increase,
   nearing 2000 J/kg in a few spots. Weak easterly flow near the
   surface combined with predominantly northerly flow aloft is
   producing 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear across the region.

   The current expectation is for ongoing developing convection to
   continue increasing in coverage, with perhaps an isolated supercell
   or two emerging where the underlying thermodynamic/kinematic
   environment is supportive. Large hail and damaging winds are the
   primary threats with the strongest cells. Given the relatively dry
   boundary layer across the region and aforementioned pockets of
   higher instability, severe storm coverage is expected to remain
   fairly isolated. Convective trends will continue to be monitored,
   but watch issuance is not anticipated at the present time.

   ..Karstens/Bunting.. 08/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31820644 32000846 34180818 35880731 36470550 35370452
               31950473 31080547 31820644 

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