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Mesoscale Discussion 1375
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1375
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0605 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia...Northern
   Virginia...Southern Pennsylvania...Maryland...Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012305Z - 020100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage threat may develop across parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic this evening. Weather watch issuance could be needed
   across the region depending upon convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low in the
   Ohio Valley with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward from
   the low into southern Pennsylvania. South of the front, a moist
   airmass is in place with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. In
   response, the airmass has become moderately unstable and MLCAPE is
   estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range across
   much of the moist sector. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across
   the Ohio Valley extending eastward into western Maryland and
   northern Virginia. This activity will continue to move eastward into
   the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours. In addition to the
   instability, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 to 35 kt will be
   supportive of at least an isolated wind damage threat. However, the
   threat could be more substantial if convective coverage increases.
   If that occurs, weather watch issuance would need to be considered.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/01/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37827649 37747739 37707851 37777933 38187974 38617979
               39287965 39797917 39987851 40007726 39787580 38967537
               38007601 37827649 

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