|Mesoscale Discussion 1375|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020
Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia...Northern
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012305Z - 020100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A wind damage threat may develop across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic this evening. Weather watch issuance could be needed
across the region depending upon convective trends.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low in the
Ohio Valley with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward from
the low into southern Pennsylvania. South of the front, a moist
airmass is in place with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. In
response, the airmass has become moderately unstable and MLCAPE is
estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range across
much of the moist sector. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across
the Ohio Valley extending eastward into western Maryland and
northern Virginia. This activity will continue to move eastward into
the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours. In addition to the
instability, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 to 35 kt will be
supportive of at least an isolated wind damage threat. However, the
threat could be more substantial if convective coverage increases.
If that occurs, weather watch issuance would need to be considered.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37827649 37747739 37707851 37777933 38187974 38617979
39287965 39797917 39987851 40007726 39787580 38967537
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