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Mesoscale Discussion 1376
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1376
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0553 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...northern New
   Jersey...southern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021053Z - 021330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally severe wind gusts are possible over northeast
   Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey this morning. A brief tornado
   is possible if the storm cluster continues to intensify.

   DISCUSSION...Storms over eastern PA have gradually intensified over
   the past hour, acquiring broad rotation as they translate
   east/northeast along the lifting warm front. Surface analysis shows
   72 to 74 F dewpoints which is contributing to around 1000 J/kg
   SBCAPE.
   Area VWPs and objective analysis show 0-1 SRH between 100-150 m2/s2,
   which is typically sufficient for a low-end tornado risk.

   Damaging wind gusts appear possible with this isolated storm
   cluster. Should the system continue to get better organized, further
   tightening of the circulation may occur, with a brief tornado
   possible. However, this would appear most likely later today when
   heating occurs and boundary layer lapse rates become more favorable.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   40617573 41017534 41317486 41357446 41157422 40817410
               40527428 40427483 40367522 40407556 40477571 40617573 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2020
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