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Mesoscale Discussion 1383
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1383
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

   Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Tennessee...extreme
   southern Virginia...western into central North Carolina...far
   northern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052134Z - 052330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
   storm cores embedded within a southward moving squall line. The
   overall severe wind threat is expected to remain isolated through
   the remainder of the evening and a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A modestly organized MCS has materialized over the past
   couple of hours across portions of the central Appalachians into the
   Carolina Piedmont, where a couple of damaging gusts have recently
   been reported. Deep-layer tropospheric flow/shear remain weak across
   much of the eastern U.S., with squall line organization driven
   predominantly by cold pool mergers in a moderately unstable
   environment. 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of the MCS/squall
   line, driven primarily by 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates. As such,
   adequate evaporative cooling within the boundary layer should
   support an isolated damaging gust threat through the remainder of
   the afternoon with the stronger storm cores.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
   JKL...

   LAT...LON   35728351 36148385 36528413 36708412 36588338 36298234
               36008109 36117967 36477867 36817817 36777765 36657716
               36337709 35967722 35657759 35167847 34897909 34637973
               34378084 34258177 34248237 34438278 34888313 35728351 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2022
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