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Mesoscale Discussion 1384
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1384
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

   Areas affected...Wyoming...South Dakota...Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052141Z - 052230Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to develop early
   this evening across parts of northern Wyoming, southwest South
   Dakota and northwest Nebraska. Large hail and wind damage will be
   the primary threats. Watch issuance could be needed across parts of
   the area.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
   ridge in the northern Plains with southwest mid-level flow
   throughout the West. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located
   from western Montana into Wyoming. At the surface, an
   northwest-to-southeast oriented outflow boundary is analyzed across
   northern and eastern Wyoming. MLCAPE near this outflow boundary is
   estimated to be in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range by the RAP. Forecast
   soundings across northern and eastern Wyoming this evening have 0-6
   km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, which should be favorable for
   severe storms. Isolated supercells will have a large hail threat.
   Wind damage may also occur with the stronger downdrafts. The most
   favorable corridor for severe should from far far eastern Wyoming
   into far northwest Nebraska, where instability is currently the
   strongest.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 07/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   41550166 41450205 41470277 41630339 41970396 42420473
               42850538 43370648 43660724 43960783 44350811 44610789
               44750710 44780634 44620523 44110294 43340095 42730036
               42030053 41550166 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2022
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