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Mesoscale Discussion 1385
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0450 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Maryland into Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052150Z - 052315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging gust or brief tornado remains possible with the
   more persistent supercell structures over the next couple of hours.
   A WW issuance is unlikely given the isolated nature of the severe

   DISCUSSION...Transient supercell structures have developed over the
   past hour across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic in association
   with a small but pronounced 500 mb vort max grazing the region. The
   21Z mesoanalysis depicts up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in place, driven
   primarily by rich, deep low-level moisture. Modest low to mid-level
   directional shear is contributing to sizable, curved hodographs (per
   2124Z DOX VWP), with mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings showing
   200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH. As such, a damaging gust or a brief
   tornado may accompany the more persistent supercell structures
   through the remainder of the afternoon. A WW issuance is not
   expected since the tornado threat is expected to remain sparse.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/05/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38867694 39327657 39477615 39437566 39197529 38847523
               38547532 38307554 38207596 38247645 38397683 38867694 

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