Mesoscale Discussion 1385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA...southeast NY...northwest
   NJ...CT...and southern MA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231923Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for a few strong to severe
   storms this afternoon. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two
   appear to be the main concerns. Convective and environmental trends
   are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating within cloud breaks from eastern
   PA northeastward across southern New England is supporting steep
   low-level lapse rates amid lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. While
   large-scale ascent is generally weak across the area, convection
   approaching from the west and potentially new development along
   mesoscale/differential heating boundaries could become strong to
   severe, given 40 kt of deep-layer shear per regional VWP. Ample
   low/midlevel flow and the steepened low-level lapse rates will favor
   a damaging-wind risk, and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature
   could support a brief tornado or two with any sustained supercell
   structures. Overall, confidence in the development of persistent
   strong/severe updrafts is low owing to the weak forcing for ascent,
   though convective and environmental trends are being monitored for a
   possible watch this afternoon.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40567764 41927651 42667570 42767522 42707460 42197261
               42117118 41827107 41617114 41417205 41337260 41267332
               40707473 40077557 39857619 39887700 40157759 40567764