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Mesoscale Discussion 1398
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1398
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast NY...Eastern Long Island...Southern
   VT...Southern NH...MA...CT...RI

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...417...

   Valid 041905Z - 042030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416, 417 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for tornadoes will continue across southern New
   England for the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and satellite/radar imagery
   places the center of Tropical Storm Isaias over northern NJ (about
   20-30 miles west-northwest of EWR). Several storms within a rain
   band arcing from about 110 miles northeast of the center to 150 east
   of the center have shown persistently deep updrafts and rotation
   while approaching central/eastern Long Island. However, interaction
   with land has caused these low-topped cells to lose much of their
   low-level rotation once onshore. 

   Large, looping low-level hodographs will remain in place over
   southern New England as the strong low to mid-level winds associated
   with Isaias persist across the region. Warm temperatures aloft will
   temper instability area wide, with the highest SBCAPE and MLCAPE
   values remaining over areas where the dewpoints are at or above 70
   deg F. Given the more favorable low-level thermodynamics, areas
   across RI, eastern CT, and eastern MA appear to have the greatest
   tornado threat. The more hostile/stable environment across eastern
   NY, southern VT, and southern NH suggests a somewhat lower tornado
   threat across these areas for the next few hours.

   Tornado Watch 416 will be allowed to expire at 20Z.

   ..Mosier.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41157387 42277418 43197359 43367188 42527045 40877100
               40487243 41157387 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2020
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