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Mesoscale Discussion 1408
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

   Areas affected...Western and Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010315Z - 010515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds are expected with convection across western
   and middle Tennessee over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Northwest flow appears to be deepening/strengthening a
   bit as heights fall within the base of Great Lakes/OH Valley upper
   trough. Over the last few hours, an elongated band of broken
   convection, about 30 miles wide, has developed from northeast
   AR-western and middle TN. This activity is propagating southeast at
   roughly 30-35kt within a reservoir of ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the
   strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow, and the modest cold
   pool that is noted with this convection, it appears these storms may
   persist for several hours, possibly generating gusty winds at times.
   However, a severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated, but will
   continue to monitor this region.

   ..Darrow/Goss.. 08/01/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36028946 36208791 36098579 35638551 35448709 35458910
               36028946 

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Page last modified: August 01, 2021
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