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Mesoscale Discussion 1423
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081826Z - 082000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and large hail may continue
   this afternoon with a small cluster of storms moving eastward. Watch
   issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has persisted early this
   afternoon into parts of southwestern MN. Evidence of mid-level
   rotation, the development of a rear-inflow jet, and a couple recent
   tree damage reports all suggest that some of the stronger downdraft
   winds associated with this cluster are reaching the surface. Even
   with low clouds remaining prevalent downstream across southern MN,
   steep mid-level lapse rates and modest diurnal heating of a moist
   low-level airmass are supporting MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg per latest
   mesoanalysis estimates. Though uncertainty regarding cap strength
   remains, there is increasing concern that this small cluster may
   continue eastward across parts of southern MN through the afternoon
   given the large reservoir of buoyancy available. Damaging, severe
   wind gusts and isolated large hail would be the main threats. If
   this ongoing convection can maintain itself over the next hour or
   so, then a small Severe Thunderstorm Watch may need to be considered

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 08/08/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44369604 44709576 45079581 44989375 44499363 43889380
               43859502 44369604 

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