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Mesoscale Discussion 1437
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1437
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

   Areas affected...southern Montana and far northwestern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111944Z - 112145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective coverage is expected to increase through the
   afternoon, with an isolated wind/hail risk likely.  A WW issuance is
   not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar and lightning imagery indicates
   expanding convective coverage from the Big Horns westward into the
   higher terrain of southwestern Montana.  This convection was in a
   continually destabilizing environment, with insolation beneath
   7-8C/km mid-level lapse rates resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE
   across the discussion area.  Additionally, 30-40 kt mid-level flow
   atop weak low-level flow suggests enough shear will be present for
   organization of cells along with some risk for a few damaging wind
   gusts and hail with the strongest convection.  This risk should be
   isolated however, especially considering the lack of forcing for
   ascent aloft across the region.  

   Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not
   expected through the remainder of the afternoon.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 07/11/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46081255 46621150 46771004 46850871 46420820 45330793
               44640873 44681063 44761193 45171252 45721272 46081255 

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