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Mesoscale Discussion 1438
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

   Areas affected...portions of northern NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111958Z - 112200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon and
   evening, posing a threat for strong, locally damaging wind gusts.
   Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Portions of northern NY has become moderately unstable
   this afternoon beneath thinning high level cloudiness. Latest 1-min
   visible satellite loop shows a large cumulus field beneath the high
   level clouds. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s with
   mainly low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg.
   Storms have increased vigorously along the surface cold front in
   eastern Ontario and are slowly shifting east. Additional convection
   has tried to initiate at times along what may be a lake breeze or
   confluence band just downstream from Lake Ontario in Oswego County
   NY. It appears likely that one or more bands of storms will track
   across parts of northern NY late this afternoon into early evening. 

   Regionally, convection has struggled to maintain
   organization/intensity, due in part to rather weak shear and poor
   midlevel lapse rates, despite adequate instability and steep 0-3 km
   lapse rates. Expect that this will be similar with storms that track
   across the MCD area, with strong, locally damaging gusts being the
   main threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for
   possible watch issuance in the next couple of hours.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/11/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45197399 45187384 44827365 44507353 43927385 43327441
               43047522 42977618 43137697 43477733 44057693 44837558
               45207478 45197399 

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