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Mesoscale Discussion 1439
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1439
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of central New Jersey...southeast
   Pennsylvania...Delaware...central into eastern Maryland...eastern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112159Z - 120000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for mainly isolated damaging wind gusts is
   expected to continue with the more intense line segments moving
   across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The isolated nature of the
   severe threat precludes a WW issuance at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively chaotic multicellular convection has
   recently grown upscale into two predominantly linear segments over
   the past few hours, with a slight uptick in convective intensity
   noted. In addition, ample buoyancy, with up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, is
   present out ahead of the southern linear segment, with over 1000
   J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the northern segment. Relatively weak flow and
   subsequent speed-shear throughout the troposphere suggest that the
   merging of cold pools is the predominant mechanism for convective
   organization. Nonetheless, the lack of stronger shear suggests that
   damaging wind gust potential will be confined to cases of the
   localized water-loading of downdrafts in the stronger convective
   cores. As such, given the isolated nature of the wind damage threat,
   a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36987933 38617756 40497553 40517467 39757431 37737535
               36537659 36567863 36987933 

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