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Mesoscale Discussion 1441
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1441
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1005 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

   Areas affected...portions of eastern SD and central/southern MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121505Z - 121630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong storms may produce near-1 inch hail through midday.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed
   along/just ahead of a surface front from central NE into eastern SD.
   Additional development is possible along the boundary to the
   northeast across central/southern MN as well where a deepening,
   agitated CU field was noted in satellite imagery. This convective
   development is likely being aided by a weak impulse/remnant MCV
   ejecting eastward across SD per water vapor imagery, in addition to
   warm advection atop an EML above 850mb noted in 12z regional RAOBs.
   Despite being elevated, these storms are developing within a plume
   of steep midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km stretching across the
   central Plains to the Upper Midwest and a moderately unstable
   airmass with MUCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg. Hi-res guidance is doing
   a poor job in depicting this convection, with the 13z HRRR not
   indicating any storms over the region until later this
   afternoon/evening. While this does lead to some uncertainty in the
   longevity of these strong morning storms, expect some
   isolated/marginal hail threat for a few hours before convection
   encounters drier air and less favorable shear with eastward extent.
   While additional convection is still possible later this afternoon,
   current storms are not expected to pose a widespread organized
   severe threat in the short term, and a watch is not anticipated at
   this time.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/12/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46499234 46689282 46649363 46249509 45669636 44939790
               43929916 43279903 42989841 42949719 43449595 44939374
               45749233 45999214 46329216 46499234 

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