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Mesoscale Discussion 1442
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1442
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

   Areas affected...portions of southeast MN into northern/central WI
   and western Upper MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121735Z - 121900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and locally damaging wind gusts possible
   this afternoon. Area is being monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is developing early this afternoon ahead of
   a cold front from western Upper MI southwestward toward southern MN.
   Thunderstorms remain isolated currently, but convective initiation
   does not appear far off across northern MI as strong destabilization
   occurs with continued heating. Surface dewpoints have modestly
   increased since this morning, ranging from the mid 60s F across
   southeast MN into the upper 50s to near 60 F toward northeast WI and
   western Upper MI. Some additional destabilization is possible
   through the afternoon, with MLCAPE generally maximizing around
   1000-2000 J/kg. Effective shear around 30-40 kt with mainly
   unidirectional deep layer westerly flow, resulting in long/straight
   hodographs, will support rotating storms capable of marginally
   severe hail if cells can remain discrete. Otherwise, steep low level
   lapse rates and weak low level shear will favor strong outflow
   gusts, some of which may be locally damaging. Trends will be
   monitored for possible watch issuance. With eastward extent toward
   Lake Michigan and Lower MI, the boundary layer becomes less
   favorable with limited moisture/inability/shear and storms should
   weaken as they approach southern WI and points east.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/12/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45999208 46668969 46878831 46868743 46668714 46148683
               45438704 44708782 44338907 44229157 44219339 44609410
               45009410 45469380 45999208 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2019
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