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Mesoscale Discussion 1444
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1444
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast Montana into northwest North
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122156Z - 130000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An risk for isolated large hail and damaging winds exists
   with supercells approaching the area. Given the isolated nature of
   the risk, convective trends will be monitored for the need of a WW
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells in far southern SK is approaching
   far northeast MT/northwest ND in association with a passing weak
   surface low, and attendant right entrance region of a 300 mb jet
   streak. These storms are progressing towards an ambient environment
   characterized by marginal buoyancy (500 J/kg MLCAPE), but strong
   deep-layer speed shear (with over 50 knots of effective bulk shear
   present). These conditions will foster continued storm
   organization/longevity and associated mid-level rotation, as
   supported by 12Z HREF and some of the latest HRRR runs.

   Though instability across the area may be characterized by long,
   skinny CAPE profiles, the ample deep-layer shear, and freezing
   levels around 4000 m, suggest that at least marginally severe hail
   may be expected with these storms. In addition, damaging gusts may
   also occur with the most intense rain/hail loaded downdrafts/forward
   flank downdrafts. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe
   threat, convective trends will be monitored for an increase in storm
   intensity and the subsequent need for a WW.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/12/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   49000712 48980150 48620141 48270155 47880187 47600246
               47670391 48090583 48480692 49000712 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2019
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