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Mesoscale Discussion 1445
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1445
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/central WI into western Upper
   MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122158Z - 122330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail will continue to be
   possible with storms this evening. Although watch issuance remains
   possible, it is not immediately likely.

   DISCUSSION...Convection that has developed along/ahead of a cold
   front this afternoon across northern WI into western portions of
   Upper MI has struggled to reach severe intensities. This may be
   related to modest (6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates present over
   this region per RAP forecast soundings, and some storms remaining
   slightly elevated across northeastern WI and adjacent Upper MI.
   Still, a favorable combination of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-45
   kt of effective bulk shear will continue to support some updraft
   organization, with marginally severe hail the main threat.
   Instability quickly lessens with eastward extent into eastern WI and
   central/eastern portions of Upper MI where dewpoints are only in the
   mid 40s to upper 50s. Any storms that move eastward into this less
   favorable environment should quickly weaken. At this point, watch
   issuance remains possible late this afternoon/evening, but does not
   appear immediately likely due to observed radar trends, small
   spatial threat area, and modest lapse rates described previously.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 07/12/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...

   LAT...LON   46399044 46278852 46148752 45958704 45758691 45388683
               44728729 44398760 44378883 44628987 45079035 45599057
               46289068 46399044 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2019
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