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Mesoscale Discussion 1448
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0918 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

   Areas of western into southern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130218Z - 130345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A slight increase in storm coverage/intensity may occur
   over the next few hours, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
   being the main threat. The severe threat is expected to be isolated
   enough to preclude a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell thunderstorm is ongoing across Mountrail
   County, ND, and is moving southeast along a weak instability
   gradient. This storm is accompanied by a modest surface cold pool
   that continues to surge southward in an ambient environment
   characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 60+ knots of effective
   bulk shear. This supercell/cold pool is approaching a diffuse
   confluence zone, extending along an east-west axis, from roughly
   K2OU to BIS. Here, both low-level directional shear and deep-layer
   speed shear are in place, with up to 300 m2/s2 effective SRH present
   (as indicated by the most recent mesoanalysis and RAP forecast
   soundings). Convection is already gradually increasing in
   coverage/intensity along the aforementioned confluence zone, and
   when the supercell and associated cold pool in northwest ND
   interacts with the confluence zone, additional storm coverage and
   associated intensification may be possible. Given the ample
   deep-layer shear and modest directional shear in place, sustained
   updrafts with deep (i.e. sustained mid-level and occasional
   low-level) rotation will be possible. 

   Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats for the
   most intense cells. While a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
   out, a gradually stabilizing boundary layer will likely limit more
   robust mesocyclone development/tornado threat. Boundary layer
   stabilization will also likely play a role in tempering the overall
   severe threat this evening, and given the expected brevity/localized
   nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated at
   this time.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/13/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46550259 46970338 47680363 48190354 48470294 48490205
               48280121 47830050 47149981 46599957 46329978 46210113
               46280213 46550259 

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