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Mesoscale Discussion 1460
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1460
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into far southern NY
   and CT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...461...462...

   Valid 122002Z - 122130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460, 461,
   462 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds and hail will develop eastward
   this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic. A downstream watch may be
   needed for parts of southern New York, New Jersey, and the Delmarva
   Peninsula.

   DISCUSSION...At 20Z, a robust supercell with intense inbound
   velocities per recent KLWX radar data is present over the far
   eastern WV Panhandle. This thunderstorm will be capable of producing
   both large hail and severe wind gusts in the short term as it
   continues eastward into far northern VA and approaches the DC metro
   and eventually parts of central MD. Additional strong to severe
   thunderstorms are ongoing along/near the MD/PA border. The
   environment downstream of this activity into central MD and northern
   VA will likely remain favorable for maintaining intense updrafts,
   with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt both
   present. Severe/damaging wind gusts should become the main severe
   threat as convection grows upscale into one or more bowing clusters,
   but isolated large hail may also occur with any supercell that can
   persist.

   Convection in eastern PA has struggled to strengthen so far this
   afternoon, even though the environment remains favorable for strong
   to severe thunderstorms. If activity in eastern PA does eventually
   intensify, it would pose some severe threat into NJ and perhaps
   southern NY. The thunderstorms moving into central MD should
   eventually pose mainly a damaging wind threat with eastward extent
   into the Delmarva Peninsula later this afternoon and evening. A
   downstream watch may be needed for parts of southern NY, NJ, and the
   Delmarva Peninsula.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39187911 39867752 41157671 41507560 41427332 41157315
               40587355 40387393 39747407 38967478 38487512 38497697
               38907893 39187911 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2022
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