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Mesoscale Discussion 1461
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1461
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

   Areas affected...Central to southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122144Z - 122345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to severe storms will likely continue
   through the evening hours and will pose a risk of severe hail and
   downburst winds in the immediate lee of the Rockies. This threat
   will most likely remain fairly isolated, and a watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...VWPs along the high Plains of CO and southeast WY show
   relatively weak flow throughout most of the column. Despite the poor
   deep-layer shear across the region, thunderstorms that have
   developed off the high terrain over the past couple of hours are
   effectively utilizing the 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and steep mid-level
   lapse rates (between 8-9 C/km per latest RAP forecast soundings).
   Short-lived, but intense updrafts in the lee of the Rockies have
   produced several one-inch hail stones over the past hour or so. This
   trend will likely continue through the remainder of the evening
   hours. In additional to severe hail, steep low-level lapse rates
   near 9 C/km may also support the potential for strong downburst
   winds. Storm propagation into the CO Plains appears possible if a
   consolidated outflow can become established, otherwise lingering
   MLCIN may confine this threat to the immediate lee of the terrain
   features. Overall, the limited longevity of individual cells and
   spatial confinement mitigate the need for a watch.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 07/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35990553 37000548 38100541 39120526 40510547 41560534
               41730454 41420369 40320334 38050329 37050339 36450370
               36060410 35920453 35800509 35990553 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2022
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