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Mesoscale Discussion 1462
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1462
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Sun Sep 16 2018

   Areas affected...Southeast NC

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...

   Valid 160723Z - 160930Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for a few brief tornadoes will continue for
   the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery shows a well-defined,
   largely stationary rain band extending from FAY southeastward
   through ILM and then south-southeastward offshore. Transient
   rotation has been noted within the more persistent updrafts within
   the band. Lightning has also been a more regular occurrence within
   these cells in then past few nights, indicating a somewhat stronger
   convective structure to this rain band versus last night. Given the
   relative similarities between the thermodynamic environments of the
   past few nights, one factor likely contributing to this more robust
   convection is stronger surface convergence. This surface convergence
   could contribute to stronger mesoscale forcing for ascent as well as
   more potential for cell interactions/mergers. 

   That being said, the marginal thermodynamic environment continues to
   temper what could be a more robust tornado threat. The most
   supportive thermodynamic environment still remains across the
   immediate coastal areas (i.e. Brunswick and New Hanover counties),
   where slightly better low-level moisture contributes to more
   buoyancy. As sampled by recent LTX VAD profiles, low-level wind
   fields remain favorable for rotation within the strongest cells and
   the threat for brief tornadoes continues across the watch area.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 09/16/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35087973 35277942 35337831 35067772 34317712 33747718
               33617855 34537950 35087973 

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