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Mesoscale Discussion 1465
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1465
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

   Areas affected...Western Nebraska to northeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130030Z - 130230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across western
   Nebraska and into northeast Colorado will continue to pose a
   hail/wind threat into the late evening hours. This threat should
   remain too limited to necessitate a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Across northern NE, a lone supercell has developed
   along a diffuse warm front over the past hour with weaker convection
   developing on the periphery of this cell. This activity is maturing
   in an environment that remains relatively uncapped with around 1300
   J/kg SBCAPE (per the 00 UTC LBF sounding). The sampled wind over the
   region show a modest supercell profile with veering winds in the
   lowest 3 km that is aiding in cell organization. Cells developing
   along the front may mature enough for cell propagation to the
   south/southeast over the next 1-2 hours. If this occurs, a hail/wind
   threat will be likely. Given the weak forcing for ascent,
   thunderstorm coverage is expected to be minimal. 

   To the southwest across northeast CO, reflectivity and velocity data
   from KCYS and KFTG show thunderstorm development along an outflow
   boundary that is propagating to the south/southeast. Individual
   cells will likely pose a brief window for severe hail while
   convectively reinforcing the cold pool to sustain propagation.
   Latest hi-res guidance suggests that this activity may become
   sufficiently organized to pose a slightly more robust severe wind
   risk across parts of northeast CO within the next few hours.
   However, confidence in the coverage of this threat remains limited
   the propensity for destructive storm interactions observed over the
   past 30-60 minutes and diminishing instability in the downstream
   environment.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 07/13/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41440384 42500340 42860210 42720027 42179981 41400000
               40880061 40080177 39630269 39650369 40130412 41440384 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2022
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