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Mesoscale Discussion 1467
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1467
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into extreme
   western Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131736Z - 131900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some severe gust potential exists if storms should congeal
   ahead of a pre-existing outflow boundary. A WW issuance is possible
   if upscale-growing storms become apparent.

   DISCUSSION...Mainly elevated storms are in progress across northern
   MS immediately north of an outflow boundary resulting from earlier
   convection. This outflow boundary is in the process of stalling
   along a northwest to southeast oriented line from just west of STF
   to west of SEM. As the southward-moving convection in northern MS
   crosses the boundary, the storms will ingest 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE
   driven by surface temperatures/dewpoints above 90F/75F. Given robust
   surface-850 mb mixing and 7+ C/km low-level lapse rates, severe
   gusts may develop from the stronger storms, and a semi-organized
   wind threat may materialize should storms grow upscale into a
   convective cluster. Also, the 12Z JAN observed sounding shows
   mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km. As such, an instance or
   two of marginally severe hail may also occur.

   Both observations and model guidance suggest weak tropospheric wind
   fields and associated shear, so upscale growth/storm organization
   will be entirely dependent on cold pool mergers. As such, convective
   trends will be monitored through the afternoon for upscale growth
   for the consideration of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/13/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33909075 33468934 33278858 32898758 32638726 32378725
               32038756 31868840 31688914 31718997 32009060 32269080
               33089099 33909075 

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