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Mesoscale Discussion 1474
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1474
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

   Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast KS...Northeast OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130547Z - 130745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail possible across
   south-central/southeast KS and adjacent northeast OK for the next
   few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the past 1-2 hours
   across south-central KS and adjacent northeast OK. This development
   was supported by a strengthening low-level jet and the resulting
   warm-air advection across the warm and moist air mass in place
   across the southern Plains. Thus far, storms have remained along the
   northeastern periphery of the stronger northwesterly flow aloft, in
   an area of generally modest vertical shear. Even so, the combination
   of modest vertical shear and moderate/strong buoyancy will still
   result in updrafts occasionally strong and organized enough to
   produce large hail. Warm low to mid-level temperatures (generally
   from 850 to 700 mb) will likely keep these storms elevated for at
   least the next several hours, minimizing the potential for damaging
   wind gusts.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/13/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37569740 38179784 38719728 38689626 36479531 35819580
               35649669 36879712 37569740 

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