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Mesoscale Discussion 1505
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1505
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 160005Z - 160100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue southwestward for a few
   more hours and should start to weaken after sunset.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in northeast Oklahoma has produced
   numerous reports of hail in southeast Kansas including a report of
   2.5 inches in Cherokee county. The environment ahead of these storms
   remains favorable with MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg and mid-level lapse
   rates around 8 C/km per SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, the KINX VWP
   shows around 25-30 kts of northwesterly flow between 3-5 km and
   around 40 kts of northwesterly flow around 8km. This should be
   sufficient to continue to support storm organization through the
   evening. The primary question is the longevity of this storm
   activity. SPC mesoanalysis has shown MLCIN continue to erode ahead
   of this storm activity as it moves south. The best low-level mass
   convergence and greatest instability remains along and south of the
   front on the western edge of this activity. Therefore, additional
   development will likely be favored on the western edge of this
   convection leading to continued southwesterly propagation. Forcing
   for ascent remains limited given a lack of a clear mid-level
   shortwave and no low-level jet. This should lead to the storm
   activity decaying as the boundary layer cools. However, given the
   moist airmass ahead of the storms, this may be a slow process and
   storms could persist for a few hours after sunset.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/16/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36979656 37289567 37179464 36379447 35669465 35309594
               35499676 36319714 36979656 

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