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Mesoscale Discussion 1526
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1526
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

   Areas affected...much of central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 191853Z - 192130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form over west-central Minnesota
   around 20-21Z, with supercells possible initially. Tornadoes and
   large hail are likely. A damaging wind threat is expected later
   today as storms merge into an MCS.

   DISCUSSION...The combination of satellite imagery and surface
   observations show an east-west oriented outflow boundary across
   southern MN, with low pressure over east-central SD into southwest
   MN. A very warm, moist, and unstable air mass exists along and south
   of the boundary where temperatures continue to rise above 90 F.
   While temperatures north of the boundary are relatively cooler,
   rapid recovery will occur due to southwest flow just above the
   surface combined with mixing. Substantial pressure falls are
   occurring over the cooler air, mainly due to warm advection just off
   the surface.

   Deep, moist convergence is currently centered over west-central MN,
   and this is where several models suggest initiation will occur. This
   seems reasonable, especially once warmer temperatures > 90 F arrive.

   Backed surface winds are contributing to 0-1 SRH values in excess of
   300 m2/s2, with relatively low LCLs near the boundary, and extreme
   instability. This will certainly support supercells and tornadoes,
   assuming discrete cells. As such, a tornado watch will be needed
   soon. Eventually, storms will merge into an MCS with a damaging wind
   threat.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   44799463 44799557 44839585 45009599 45579604 45939579
               46229522 46259468 46259348 46189281 46009249 45489234
               45089237 44729269 44779405 44799463 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2019
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